What to watch for when reading a forex book

When it comes to forex trading, there are many, many resources out there to help you learn the ropes. There are online courses, seminars and even one-on-one training available. But sometimes the best way to learn is the old-fashioned way: by reading a book.

The marketplace abounds with forex books, and many new traders find them the best way to learn because it allows them to re-read passages as many times as necessary to fully grasp the concepts. Imagine asking the speaker at a large public seminar to repeat himself and you can see why a book has its advantages!

The question is, which forex book should you read? Like any other field, the forex trading world has its share of hucksters and liars. Be wary of any book that makes outrageous claims in its title or on the cover -- “Be a forex pro in an hour!” or “Make millions while you sleep!” for example. If a forex book promises something that’s too good to be true, it probably is. And if the book downplays or neglects the inherent risk in forex trading, you should skip it.

What you want in a forex book instead is calm, reasonable, practical advice. Showy, glitzy language suggests the writer is trying to pull a fast one. (And you have to wonder: If it’s SO EASY to make millions in forex trading, why is this guy writing books about it instead of doing it?) Restrained, logical language suggests the writer knows the market and is simply explaining what he’s learned.

Take note also of the book’s presentation. Is it an e-book sold by some guy off his Web site? Is it riddled with grammar and spelling errors? Or does it appear to have been written and edited by professionals, and presented in an appealing, straightforward manner? You want a book that fits the latter description. It’s more likely to be reliable and up-front about the pros and cons of forex trading.

Finally, when considering a forex book, it’s worth taking a few minutes to Google the author’s name and see what comes up. Are there reviews of the book written by actual readers (not testimonials provided on the author’s Web site)? Has the author been mentioned in any news stories? What is his or her background? Does he or she have any real-world trading experience, or do they just write forex books? Remember, those who can do, do. Those who can’t do, teach. 

Trying to forecast forex rates is an acquired skill

It’s not easy to forecast the forex markets, but it’s what thousands of forex traders and brokers do every day, with varying degrees of success. Like forecasting the weather, predicting the forex market is sometimes a crapshoot, sometimes a guessing game, and always an adventure.

There are two basic philosophies on how to forecast the forex markets. One is technical analysis; the other is fundamental analysis. We’ll look at them both.

The technical approach examines past market action and uses that data to predict the future. Previous trends in most areas of life are almost always good indicators of the future; forex is no different. People have not changed much in the decades since the forex market was created. People still buy and sell and react to stimuli in much the same way as they did 50 years ago.

Since forex rates change constantly throughout the day, every day, looking at all the years of past data can be daunting. Smart analysts learned to look at the big picture, to skip the minor details and examine trends over a longer period of time.

Using fundamental analysis to forecast forex markets is a bit more in-depth, but it can also be highly accurate. Basically, fundamental analysis means forecasting the market based on external factors -- political moves, government involvement, social movements, even the weather. Someone good at fundamental analysis might forecast forex drop-offs because he knows a country’s government is unstable at the moment, or increases because the country has just elected a popular new leader. Anything that can affect a nation’s economy can affect the exchange rates, and that’s what a fundamental analyst uses to guess at the forex market’s future

Naturally, this means having to know a particular country in-depth, which is hard to do for more than a few countries at a time. (It becomes even more complicated when trying to forecast the euro, since several different countries use that currency.) But having that kind of intricate knowledge makes it much, much easier to forecast forex trends.

Most good traders use a mixture of both processes, technical and fundamental. For example, a trader might see that a country is currently facing a particularly strong hurricane season (fundamental) and know that in the past, strong hurricane seasons have meant a weaker economy for that nation (technical). Thus, he can predict down-turns for that nation with some degree of confidence.